S&P 500 Goes 18 Months Without a 10% Drop: What History Says Next for Investors

The S&P 500 has spent over 380 trading sessions without dropping 10% or more from a peak, marking roughly 18 months since its last correction on April 28, 2025. Trading near 7,520, the index would need to close below approximately 7,037 to break this ongoing streak of calm.

A review of historical data going back to 1950 reveals seven previous stretches where the index went this long without a 10% pullback. One year after hitting this duration, the S&P 500 traded higher in five of those seven instances, posting a median gain of roughly 7%. This performance closely mirrors the baseline behavior of ordinary years, where the index historically finishes higher about 75% of the time with a median gain of 11%.

While extended calm does not automatically signal impending trouble, history shows mixed outcomes depending on macroeconomic factors. Following the January 1960 marker, the index dipped 2% amid a broader economic contraction, while rising interest rates contributed to a 17% drop after January 2022. Conversely, the longest recorded streak began in early 1991 and stretched nearly seven years.

What to watch next: Keep an eye on incoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and overall market valuations, as historical analysis indicates these factors drive future market performance far more than the sheer length of a correction-free streak.